The Dollar index has dipped after testing resistance and could dip for the next few sessions while Euro can rise from here.  USDJPY has dipped below 158 and is headed towards 157/156 while EURJPY can trade within 181-178 region for the near term.  USDINR has mild scope of testing 95.50 while below 96 but looks eventually bullish for a rise towards 96.25/50. Aussie needs to rise above 0.7050 to pick upward momentum while Pound looks bullish above 1.32.

Having tested immediate resistance at 101.40, the Dollar Index (101.034) has dipped and could have scope for a fall towards 100.75-100.50 in the near term. Thereafter whether it would bounce back to higher levels or continue decline to 100 and lower will have to be seen.
 
EURUSD (1.1385) looks bullish while above crucial support at 1.13. A slow pullback towards 1.14-1.15 can be seen in the coming weeks.

Dollar-Yen (157.78) has dipped along with the dollar index. Currently 159 is holding as important resistance and could hold so for the next few weeks.

EURJPY (179.66) is trading within 181-178 region and needs a breakout on the upside to pick up upward momentum for the longer run. Till then the said range is likely to hold.

EURINR (109.16) has crucial support near 109 and lower at 108 which is likely to hold and keep the pair Higher in the coming days. A slow rise back towards 110-111 could soon come into the picture.

USDCNY (6.7157) continues to trade above 6.71. A decisive break above 6.72/7250 is needed to negate further downside and to turn bullish for the coming days. Till then we do not negate a dip back towards 6.71/70.

Aussie (0.7016) could have scope to test 0.69 on a break below 0.70 else can rise from here itself and establish a bullish momentum on a break above 0.7050.

Pound (1.3241) has crucial support at 1.32 above which we may expect a sharp rebound for the medium term back towards 1.34/35.

USDINR (95.80) could have some scope of coming down towards 95.60/50 while below 96. However, an eventual breakout above 96 towards 96.25/50 looks likely in the medium term. The next few weeks can see a broad 1rupee range of 95.50-96.50.

The US Treasury and the German Yields sustain higher. The outlook remains bullish for both. Support is there to limit the downside. So, any dip from here can be short-lived. Both the US Treasury and the German Yields can go further higher from here. The 10Yr GoI has a crucial resistance ahead. Failure to break this resistance can drag it lower going forward. We will have to wait and see.

The US 10Yr (5.17%) and 30Yr (5.48%) yields remain higher and stable. Support is at 5.1%-5% (10Yr) and 5.4%-5.35% (30Yr). While above this support, the upside remains open to see 5.3%-5.35% (10Yr) and 5.65% (30Yr) and even higher levels.

The German 10Yr (3.60%) and 30Yr (3.91%) Yields sustain higher. The bullish view remains intact to see 3.7% (10Yr) and 4%-4.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.1194%) touched 7.14% and has come down from there. 7.15% is a key resistance. While that holds, a fall to 7% and lower is possible. A sustained rise above 7,15% is needed to go further higher.

Dow has bounced above 52000 but remains vulnerable towards 51500-51000. DAX is moving higher and can test 26000 while remaining range-bound. Nifty remains positive above 23000 and can rise towards 23300. Nikkei remains weak below 67000 and can decline towards 65000-64000. Shanghai has broken below 3850 and needs to hold 3800 to avoid further weakness.

Dow (52004, -0.30%) has bounced back above 52000 but remains vulnerable to a decline towards 51500-51000 in the near term.

DAX (25658, +0.33%) is moving higher in line with our alternative expectation. A further rise towards 26000 can be seen, keeping it range-bound between 25350-26000 for some time.

Nifty (23,140.50, +0.34%) closed above 23100 after testing a low of 23020 on Friday. While it remains above 23000, it has scope to rise towards 23300 over the coming week.

Nikkei (66155, -0.52%) can decline towards 65000-64000 while below the resistance near 67000.

Shanghai (3816.40, -1.86%) has fallen sharply and broken below 3850. It can now find support near 3800. This level needs to hold to avoid further decline. Need to wait and watch.

Brent and WTI have fallen amid uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, but further gains towards $ 110-$ 115 and $ 98-$ 100 remain possible. Gold has broken below $ 4300 and can decline towards $ 4200-$ 4100. Silver remains weak below $ 63 and can fall towards $ 60. Copper can decline towards $ 6.60-$ 6.50, while Natural Gas can fall towards $ 3.00 and lower.

Brent ($ 106.49) and WTI ($ 93.83) sold off on Friday amid hopes of a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, Trump rejected the proposal to reopen the strait, while Iran hinted at greater damage to the US. The chances of a rise towards $ 110-$ 115 and $ 98-$ 100 respectively remain intact for now.

Gold ($ 4241.90) has broken below $ 4300, contrary to our expectations. A further fall towards $ 4200-$ 4100 can be seen in the coming sessions.

Silver ($ 62.43) has fallen below $ 63, contrary to our expectations. It can decline further towards $ 60 in the near term.

Copper ($ 6.66) is falling sharply in line with our expectations and can decline further towards $ 6.60-$ 6.50.

Natural Gas ($ 3.11) retreated on Friday, contrary to our expectations. Columbia Gas Transmission found the leak in a West Virginia pipeline, easing concerns about an extended outage. A further decline towards $ 3.00 and lower can be seen in the near term.

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
…Previous 6.7 %

FRIDAY’S DATA:-
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UK Cons Conf
…Expected -16 …Previous-14 …Actual -13

US Durable Goods Orders
…kshtiij Expn. -0.6 % …Expected -0.3% …Previous 0.9 % …Actual -0.02 %