Currencies remain stable today with not much volatility. The dollar Index continues trade below 104.50 with downward bias intact for a fall to 102 while Euro can rise to 1.10 above 1.0850. EURJPY can range within the broad 164-159 region while USDJPY can rise to 150 or slightly higher before falling to 148/147 again. Aussie and Pound could hold below 0.66 and 1.26 for the near term. USDRUB continues trade within 88-89. USDCNY is bearish to 7.10/7.05 while below 7.16/20. EURINR could trade between 91.50-90.50 while USDINR could be seen within 83.25-83.40 for the next few sessions.

Dollar Index (103.82) looks stable below 104. While below 104.50, there could be scope for an eventual fall to 102 before a sharper reversal is seen in the longer run.

EURUSD (1.0895) is likely to trade above immediate support at 1.0850 and has scope to rise towards 1.10.

EURJPY (162.91) could be headed towards 164 on the upside while immediate downside could be limited to 160/159. Overall a range of 159-164 can hold for the next couple of weeks.

Dollar-Yen (149.54) has moved up well over the last 3-sessions. If it manages to rise above 150, it can move up towards 151 before resuming the fall towards 148 in the longer run.

USDCNY (7.1499) is stuck near 7.12/7.15 and needs to move either ways from here for clarity on near term direction. Overall view is bearish while below 7.16/20 for a fall to 7.10/05.

Aussie (0.6555) is holding below 0.66. We may expect some consolidation between 0.66-0.65 for some time.

Pound (1.2526) has immediate support at 1.25 above which view is bullish for a rise towards 1.26. A near term range of 1.25-1.26 can hold before a further rise towards 1.27 is possible.

USDRUB (88.2776) looks stable within 88-89 region which could continue for some more time before getting more clarity on further direction.

USDINR (83.3475) has become stable around 83.30 and could trade within 83.25-83.40 region for the next few sessions unless a sharp move is seen on either side.

EURINR (90.8080) could trade within 90.50-91.50 for the next few sessions.


The US Treasury yields have bounced back. The support on the yields is holding well. A strong follow-through rise from here will turn the outlook bullish to see higher levels. The German yields have also risen back well. Need to see if it can sustain and avoid a fall back. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can oscillate in a narrow sideways range for some time.

The US 10Yr (4.45%) and the 30Yr (4.58%) yields have risen. The support at 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.5%-4.55% (30Yr) are holding well. A strong follow-through rise above 4.5% (10Yr) and 4.65%-4.7% (30Yr) will be bullish to see higher levels. We will have to wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.61%) and the 30Yr (2.78%) have bounced back. Need to see if they sustain in order to avoid the fall to 2.5% (10Yr) and 2.6%-2.7% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.2561%) remains stable and could oscillate between 7.2% and 7.3% for some time with chances of the downside extending up to 7.15%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.2477%) is also stable inside the 7.2%-7.3% range and could come down within this range.


Dow Jones was closed yesterday. DAX has come up to its upper end of the range and has scope to break on the upside. Nifty lacks momentum to rise above 19850 but bias remains positive to see a break above it and rise on the upside. Nikkei has broken sharply above its resistance at 33500 and looks bullish to target new highs. Shanghai appears ranged.

Dow (35273.03) was closed yesterday.

DAX (15994.73, +0.23%) has come up to the upper end of the 15800-16000 range. We retain our bullish bias to see a break above 16000 and a rise to 16500-16600.

Nifty (19802, -0.05%) is still struggling to breach 19850 decisively. But the bias remains positive to break 19850 and rise to 20000.

Nikkei (33680.50, +0.68%) has risen firmly breaking above the upper end of the 33500-33000 range. A rise towards 34000-34300-34400 looks likely now.

Shanghai (3048.74, -0.42%) looks ranged within 3025-3100. We will wait for a decisive breakout to get directional clarity .


Brent and WTI needs to hold above their immediate support to avoid the danger of falling again. Gold lacks strength to rise above 2000 but outlook will remain bullish as long as it holds above 1980-1960. Silver is to remain range bound for a while. Copper is bearish for a fall while below 3.85. Natural Gas has risen as the mentioned support at 2.8 has held well.

Brent ($ 81.65) has managed to sustain above $ 80 but needs to rise past $ 83 to open doors towards $ 84-85. Else a fall towards $ 78-77 cannot be negated.

WTI ($ 76.72) needs to hold above $ 75-74 and rise past $ 78 to avoid the danger of falling towards $ 72 or lower and to see a rise towards $ 80-81.

Gold (1993.10) lacks strength to rise above 2000. But while above the support at 1980-1960, there is scope for a rise towards 2020.

Silver (23.74) looks ranged within 24.30-23.30. As long as it holds above 23.30, bias will remain positive for a rise towards 24.70 in the coming weeks.

Copper (3.7660) tested 3.80 and has come off from there towards 3.75. Outlook remains bearish for a dip towards 3.70 while below 3.85.

Natural Gas (2.9440) has risen above 2.90 as the support at 2.8 has held well. A rise towards 3.0-3.05 looks possible from here.


23:05 4:35 UK Cons Conf
Expn -37 …Expected -28 …Previous -30

23:30 5:00 JP CPI
Expn 3.3 …Expected – …Previous 3.0

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
Expn – …Expected 87.5 …Previous 86.9

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
Expn – …Expected 89.4 …Previous 89.2

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
Expn – …Expected 85.7 …Previous 84.7

No major data release Yesterday.