Dollar Index is trading around 104 and needs to move on either direction from here to give further clarity on whether it would rise towards 106 or fall to 103/102 again. Euro trades below 1.08 and has fair scope to fall to 1.0650. EURJPY and USDJPY have dipped again and could be bearish for the next few sessions. Aussie and Pound seem stable just now but have fair scope for a decline towards 0.6450 and 1.25 respectively. USDRUB is bearish to 90-89. USDCNY could fall while below 7.20/22 and head towards 7.10. USDINR is likely to be ranged within 83.25-83.40 with some possibility of a rise towards 83.50 soon. EURINR could dip to 89. US CPI and Indian CPI data releases today would be important to watch.

Dollar Index (104) traded around 104 yesterday and looks like a fall could be possible while below 104.50. However, only a sustained sharp rise above 104.50 can take it higher towards 106 else we may continue to see a range of 104-102 to hold for the rest of the month.

EURUSD (1.0767) is ranged below 1.08. Some sideways consolidation is possible before a shar move is seen on either side. There are equal chances of seeing a rise to 1.10 or a fall to 1.0650.

EURJPY (156.88) is bearish below 158 and could resume to fall towards 156-155.

Dollar-Yen (145.79) dipped from 146.58 and could continue its downtrend while below immediate resistance at 147.

USDCNY (7.1769) has dipped slightly today but could limit its upside to 7.20/22 while there is enough room on the downside for a fall to 7.10.

Aussie (0.6579) seems to be volatile within the 0.6650-0.6550 region and a clear break out on either side will decide on further direction from here.

Pound (1.2566) has support at 1.25 which if holds can take the Pound higher towards 1.26-1.2650.

USDRUB (91.122) tested 90 before rising from there. View is bearish for a fall to 90/80 on sustained close basis in the next few sessions.

USDINR (83.3975) continues to trade within 83.25-83.40.

EURINR (89.7185) looks bearish for a fall to 89.50-89.00 before a bounce is seen.

The US Treasury and the German yields remain stable. The Treasury yields will need a strong follow-through rise to stage a strong rise from here. The US Fed meeting outcome tomorrow night is going to be very important. The German yields look vulnerable to break their immediate supports and fall further. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI continue inch up within their sideways range.

The US 10Yr (4.23%) and the 30Yr (4.32%) yields remain stable. We repeat that a strong rise above 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr) can see 4.4%-4.45% (10Yr) and 4.5%-4.6% (30Yr) on the upside. Support is at 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.27%) and the 30Yr (2.45%) yields are also stable. They remain vulnerable to break below 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.4% (30Yr) and fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr). Key resistances are at 2.5% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr)

The 10Yr GoI (7.2785%) and 5Yr GOI (7.2502%) continue to move up within their 7.2%-7.3% range. A breakout on either side of 7.2%-7.3% will determine the next leg of move.

Dow Jones has broken above the upper end of the range and can rise further from here. DAX continues to move up. Nifty and Shanghai looks bullish for the near term. Nikkei has risen further but outlook will remain bearish while below the resistance at 33500.

Dow (36404.93, +0.43%) has risen above 36300. While this sustains, a further rise to 36600-36800 is possible.

DAX (16794.43, +0.21%) continues to move up. The bullish view is intact to see 17000-17400 while the DAX remains above 16500.

Nifty (20997.10, +0.13%) remained higher but stable. A sustained rise above 21000 can take the index up to 21500-21700. Support is at 20850 and then at 20700 and 20500.

Nikkei (32989.50, +0.60%) has inched up further. But while below the resistance at 33500, bias remains bearish for a fall towards 31500-31300.

Shanghai (2987.30, -0.12%) has risen sharply towards 3000 as expected as the support at 2930-2925 has held well. View is bullish for a further rise towards 3025-3050.

Crude prices have risen towards their interim resistance and might break above it to see a target of next crucial resistance. Gold and Copper looks vulnerable below 2020 and 3.80 respectively. Silver continues its downtrend but has support coming up at 22.80. Need to see if that holds and produce a bounce back or not. Natural Gas remains bearish for the near term. The US CPI data outcome will be the key focus today.

Brent ($ 76.13) is hovering below $ 77. A sustained break above it is needed to open doors towards $ 80-82.

WTI ($ 71.46) has risen towards $ 72. A break above it can trigger a rise towards $ 75-76.

Gold (1998.20) is coming down breaking below 2000. View remains bearish for a fall towards 1950 while below the resistance at 2020.

Silver (23.15) continues to fall. Immediate support is at 22.80. While that holds, a bounce back towards 24 can be seen. Else, view will be further bearish towards 22.

Copper (3.7930) has fallen sharply below 3.80. A dip towards 3.72-3.70 looks possible.

Natural Gas (2.4370) fell sharply to test 2.30 yesterday and has bounced back from there to trade above 2.40. However, bias remains bearish for a test of 2.00 before a reversal can happen.

23:50 05:20 JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
Expn – …Expected 10.0 …Previous 9.0

7:00 12:30 UK Unemp
Expn 4.1% …Expected 4.2% …Previous 4.2%

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 7.5% …Expected – …Previous 5.8%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 5.14 …Expected – …Previous 4.87

13:30 19:00 US CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.2 …Expected 0.0 …Previous 0 .0