The Dollar Index might get support at 103.50 while Euro could face resistance near 1.09. Aussie, Pound and EURJPY has potential to rise towards their key resistance in the near term. USDCNY and USDJPY have resistance overhead which may keep them ranged for a while. EURINR looks ranged bound. USDINR may attempt to fall below 83.20 towards 83.10. Market is awiting for US CPI data today which might bring some volatility.

Dollar Index (104.11) is heading down towards the lower end of the 105-103.50 range. If 103.50 holds, a bounce back towards 104.50 could be seen.

EURUSD (1.0852) moved up to 1.0885 yesterday and has dipped slightly from there. Key resistance is seen near 1.09. While that holds, a narrow range of 1.09-1.08 and a broad range of 1.09-1.07 can hold for some time.

EURJPY (164.71) indeed rose to 165.17 yesterday in line with expectations for a rise towards 164/165. It has scope to test 165.50 before a pause can be seen.

Dollar-Yen (151.75) keeps hovering below its crucial resistance of 152. A range of 152-151 may hold for the near term.

USDCNY (7.2311) is hovering below key resistance at 7.2350. Higher resistance is seen at 7.25. On the downside, support is at 7.2250-7.22. We can expect a narrow range of 7.2350-7.2250/7.2200 to hold for some time.

Aussie (0.6626) has moved up towards 0.6650. It has scope to break above 0.6650 and rise towards 0.67 while it remains above 0.6580.

Pound(1.2675) has potential to rise towards its key resistance at 1.28 before a corrective dip might be seen towards 1.27-1.26.

USDINR (83.32) tested 83.22 on Monday in line with expectations for a fall to 83.20 before bouncing back sharply to close at 83.32. However, on the offshore market it has come down to 83.19 which indicates that Dollar-Rupee may open lower near 83.20 today and may attempt to fall towards 83.10.

EURINR (90.3241) looks ranged within 89.50-91.00.


The US Treasury yields have come down ahead of the US CPI data release today. Failure to rise past from here will reduce the chances of the rise that we have been mentioning over the last few days and can drag the yields lower. The US inflation data release today will need a close watch. The German yields have also come down sharply failing to break the range on the upside. The sideways range is intact, and the yields can fall within it. The ECB meeting outcome tomorrow will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has risen well above its resistance and looks bullish to rise more. The 5Yr GoI on the other hand is yet to break the resistance which if happens can take it higher.

The US 10Yr (4.36%) and the 30Yr (4.50%) yields have come down. The 10Yr has dipped below 4.4%. Failure to rise back will reduce chances of the rise to 4.6% and drag it down to 4.2%-4.1% again. The 30Yr has to rise past 4.6% to move to 4.8%. Else it can fall back to 4.3%-4.2%. We will have to wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.37%) and the 30Yr (2.51%) yields have come down from near the upper end of their range. The 2.2%-2.45% (10Yr) and 2.4%-2.6% (30Yr) range remains intact and the yields have started falling within it.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1501%) has risen to 7.15% and can test 7.2%. Thereafter a corrective dip to 7.1% can be seen before the upside extends up to 7.3%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.1136%) can also rise to 7.2%-7.25% and higher on a decisive break above 7.12%.


Dow Jones and Nikkei have to surpass the resistance overhead to become bullish again; else will be vulnerable to a fall back. DAX, Nifty and Shanghai have fallen but have near term supports coming up which may hold and produce a bounce back.

Dow (38883.67, -0.02%) has risen back well from the low of 38602. However, a strong break above 39200 will be needed to bring back the bullishness. Else the danger of breaking below 38500 and falling to 38000 will remain alive. For now, 38500-39200 can be the trading range.

DAX (18076.69, -1.32%) has declined sharply. It is poised just above the crucial support level of 18000 which has to hold to take it back up to 18500. A break below 18000 can drag it down to 17800-17600.

Nifty (22642.75, -0.1%) fell sharply from a high of 22768 giving back all the gains yesterday. Support is at 22500. While that holds, the near-term view will remain bullish to see 23000. Deeper support is at 22200.

Nikkei (39652.50, -0.22%) has extended the bounce further. However it has to surpass 40000 to negate the danger of falling towards 38000 and to move up towards 40500-41000.

Shanghai (3037.55, -0.36%) has broken below the support at 3050-3040 contrary to our view that it will hold and lead to a rise towards 3150-3200. Immediate support is now seen at 3000. While that holds, a broad range of 3000-3100 may hold for a while.


Brent and WTI have dipped but have key immediate support at $ 88.50 and $ 84 respectively which may keep them ranged for a while. Metals continues to rise and have scope to see a test of their key resistances in the near term before a corrective fall can happen.

Brent ($ 89.45) is consolidating within $ 91-88.50. A break on either side of the range is needed to determine if it will rise towards $ 92-92.50 or falls towards $ 87.50.

WTI ($ 85.28) looks ranged within $ 88-84. A break on either side of the range will deicide if it will rise towards $ 90 or falls towards $ 82.

Gold (2367.90) continues to rise. A test of 2400-2415 looks possible before a corrective fall might be seen towards 2300.

Silver (28.21) has broken above 28. While this break sustains, an extended rise to 29.00-29.50 looks possible before a pause can be seen.

Copper (4.3080) continues to rally and looks bullish for a rise towards 4.40 looks possible. After that a corrective dip might be seen towards 4.30.

Natural Gas (1.8940) has bounced sharply as the support near 1.70 has held well. A rise towards 2.00 can be seen.


12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.3 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.4

12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.4%

13:45 19:15 BOC Meeting
Expn – …Expected 5.00% …Previous 5.00%

No major data release Yesterday.