The Dollar Index, EURUSD, Dollar-Yen, EURJPY, Aussie & Pound are ranged within 104-105.50, 1.0750-1.0650, 156-158,168-170, 0.6570-0.6720 and 1.26-1.28 respectively. Only a decisive break on either side of these respective ranges can give further directional clarity in the near term, until then; the respective ranges are likely to hold for some time. USDCNY looks bullish to 7.26/28 in the medium term while above 7.25. EURINR can trade within 89.50/89-91.25 region for some time. USDINR is likely to head towards the upper end of its range of 83.60/65-83.30 in the coming sessions before halting.

Dollar Index (105.389) yesterday rose to the level of 105.67 but could not sustain and is currently back within its old range of 104-105.50. Only a decisive break past 105.50 can take it towards 106-106.50 in the medium term. Watch price action around 105.50.

EURUSD (1.0724) on Friday tested 1.0667 on the downside before recovering from there. Now, unless a strong break past 1.0750-1.08 is seen, a narrow range of 1.0750-1.0650 is likely to persist for a while.

Dollar-Yen (157.65) and EURJPY (169.07) are currently nearing the upper end of their narrow range of 156-158 and 168-170 respectively. Thereafter, whether the rise gets halted or extends further up will have to be seen.

USDCNY (7.2549) has been trading flat since the last 2-3 sessions but while above 7.25, the pair can target 7.26-7.28 in the medium term. View is bullish above 7.25.

Aussie (0.6610) and Pound (1.2696) continue to trade within 0.6580-0.6720 and 1.26-1.28 region respectively. Unless a strong break past 0.6720 and 1.28 is seen, the stated range may persist for a while. Watch out for the RBA meeting scheduled today.

USDINR (83.56) is likely to move higher within its range of 83.60/65-83.30 this week before eventually falling back towards 83.40/30 on the downside. Watch price action near 83.60/65.

EURINR (89.5367) continues to remain volatile within its range of 89.50/89-91.25. Unless a decisive break on either side of the range is seen, we expect the mentioned range to hold for now.


The US Treasury yields remain lower. There is room to fall further from here to test their supports and then a reversal is possible. The German yields are poised at their crucial support. They have to bounce back immediately from here to avoid a deeper fall. The 10Yr GoI remains stable within its sideways range. The 5Yr GoI on the other hand is bouncing back from its crucial support. A strong follow-through rise in the coming days can take it higher.

The US 10Yr (4.27%) and the 30Yr (4.40%) yields remain lower but stable. We retain our view of the yields falling to 4.2%-4.1% (10Yr) and 4.35%-4.25% (30Yr). Thereafter the yields can rise back again.

The German 10Yr (2.41%) and the 30Yr (2.57%) yields have come down towards their key supports at 2.4% and 2.55% respectively as expected. A bounce from here is needed immediately to avoid a deeper fall to 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.0415%) remains stable within the 7%-7.12% range. A fall to test the lower end of the range cannot be ruled. But the sideways range is likely to remain intact.

The 5Yr GOI (6.9981%) has bounced from its key support level of 6.95%. Need to see if it is getting a strong follow-through rise above 7% which is needed to take it up to 7.1%.


Dow Jones has risen but needs to surpass the 39000-39200 resistance to move up further. Dax is likely to hold above support at 18800. Nifty needs to break above 23500 to turn further bullish to 23800-24000 else can fall back towards 23300/23200. Nikkei and Shanghai trade lower but could hold above supports of 38000 and 3000 respectively from where a bounce is expected.

Dow (38778.10, +0.49%) has risen back. But the 39000-39200 resistance has to be breached for it to clear the way for a rise to 40000. Else a fall to 38000 is still possible.

DAX (18068.21, +0.37%) is managing to hold above 18000. A strong rise above 18200 is now needed to see 18500 and higher levels. A break below 18000 can take it down to 17700. It is a wait-and-watch.

Nifty (23465.60, +0.29%) can rise to 23800-24000 on a break above 23500. Support is in the 23300-23200 region which has to be broken for a fall to 23000-22800.

Nikkei (38,504.39, +1.05%) is trading above crucial support near 38000 which may hold well to produce a bounce back towards 39000 and higher. Failure to hold above 38000, can drag the price down to 37000-36800 before bottoming out in the near term. The preference is to see 38000 hold for the medium term.

Shanghai (3028.34,-0.41%) is trading just above support at 3000 which needs to hold to prevent a fall towards 2950-2900. Watch price action near 3000 for a bounce.


Brent and WTI have risen towards $ 85 and $ 80. Need to see if crude prices are able to rise past these levels or fall back from here. It is a wait-and-watch. Gold and Silver might rise towards 2385/2400 and 31.00 in the near term. Natural gas remains bearish for the near term while below 2.8. Copper remains vulnerable while below the resistance at 4.5/4.6.

Brent ($ 84.18) and WTI ($ 79.64) have risen towards $ 85 and $ 80 respectively. A rise past these levels is needed to move up towards $ 87.50-90 (Brent) and $ 82.50-85 (WTI). Else can fall back towards $ 80 and $ 76/75 is possible.

Gold (2338.90) appears to range between 2300-2360, contrary to our bearish view. It can rise towards the resistance at 2385/2400. Thereafter, it can come down towards 2300 or even 2280.

Silver (29.57) is moving up towards 30. Can rise towards 31 in the near term while above 29-28.50.

Copper (4.4540) hovers above 4.4. Resistance is seen at 4.5-4.6. Failure to rise past 4.5/4.6 coupled with a break below 4.4 can drag the Copper down to 4.24/4.20. Only a rise above 4.60, if seen and sustained, can negate the stated bearishness.

Natural Gas (2.7960) has fallen below 2.8. It may come down to 2.65 or 2.50 before a pause can be seen.


4:30 10:00 RBA Meeting
Expn – … Expected 4.35% … Previous 4.35%

9:00 14:30 EU CPI (YoY)
Expn 2.5% … Expected 2.6% … Previous 2.6%

12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
Expn 0.1% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.0%

13:15 18:45 US Industrial Production
Expn -0.1% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.0%

13:15 18:45 US Capacity Utilization
Expn 78.2% … Expected 78.6% … Previous 78.4%

20:00 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
Expn – … Expected 69.3 … Previous 100.5

Data Yesterday
2:00 07:30 CN Retail Sales
Expn – … Expected 3.0 … Previous 2.3 …Actual 3.7

2:00 07:30 CN IIP (YoY)
Expn – … Expected 4.2 … Previous 4.2 …Actual 4.0