The Dollar Index while trades below 100-101, can be vulnerable to fall towards 98-96. The Euro and EURINR, while trades above 1.13 and 97 respectively, can ascend towards 1.15-1.16 and 98-99 levels. EURJPY continues to trade within the 160-165 region. USDJPY has risen a bit but faces immediate resistance at 144.50-145.00 below which a fall back towards 142 or even 140 can happen before halting. AUDUSD and Pound are trading within the range of 0.6400/635-0.6550 and 1.34-1.36 respectively. The USDCNY has declined as anticipated and a further fall below current levels can drag it further to 7.17/15. The USDINR can continue to hold the range of 85.25-85.75 for a while. IN Services PMI and US ADP Employment data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (99.14) recovered a bit yesterday but while the Index trades below 100-101, the targets of 98-96 are kept alive for now.

EURUSD (1.11386) failed to sustain its rise past 1.14 and started coming off from 1.1454 itself. An immediate support is coming around 1.13 region. While it holds, the pair can attempt to rise past 1.14 again and eventually ascend towards 1.15-1.16.

EURINR (97.5292) while sustains above 97, can target 98-99 in the near term.

EURJPY (163.725) has risen a bit within its 160/62-165 range. Still, the cross needs a confirmed break on either side to get further clarity. Till then, range can persist.

Dollar-Yen (143.07) bounced from the low of 142.38 itself. An immediate resistance is coming near 144.50-145.00 below which there could be some scope to see the fall towards 142 or even 140 before halting.

USDCNY (7.1845) is coming off as anticipated and a break below 7.18 if seen, can open the doors for 7.17-7.15 on the downside. Overall, view remains bearish below 7.20/22. Only a strong break past 7.22/2250 can negate the anticipated fall.

Aussie (0.6471) is trading higher within its 0.6400/635-0.6550 range. While the resistance near 0.6550 holds, the pair can continue to hold the range.

Pound (1.3525) is slowly inching higher towards the upper end of its immediate range of 1.34-1.36. Thereafter, a strong break past 1.36 will be needed to maintain the bullish trend. Else, an initial fall to 1.32 can be witnessed before the pair starts rising higher later in the medium term.

USDINR (85.6380) continues to hold the immediate range of 85.25-85.75 quite well and broadly it can trade within the 85-86 region for a while before eventually ascending higher.

The US Treasury Yields remain stable. They have to break their immediate resistance to avoid further fall and rise. It is a wait and watch situation now. The German yields can dip to test their support from here. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if a bounce is happening or not. The 10Yr GoI remains stuck in a narrow range and can fall within it. The bias is negative to break the range on the downside and fall more.

The US 10Yr (4.44%) and 30Yr (4.97%) Treasury yields remain stable. We repeat that a sustained rise above 4.47% (10Yr) and 5% (30yr) is needed for a rise to 4.6% (10Yr) and 5.1%-5.2% (30Yr). Failure to do that can break the support at 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr) and trigger a fall to 4.3%-4.25% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.75% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.52%) and 30Yr (3.01%) yields remain lower. They can fall to 2.45%-2.4% (10Yr) and 2.9% (30Yr) from here. 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) are key resistances which can cap the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.2537%) remains stuck between 6.23% and 6.3%. Within this it can fall and test 6.2%. Bias is bearish to break 6.2% and see more fall. Upside can be capped at 6.3%-6.35%.

All the mentioned equity indices have risen well except the Nifty, but could face near term resistances ahead. The Dow and the Dax are headed towards resistances of 42500/43000 and 24500 respectively from where a correction can be possible while Nikkei and Shanghai are headed towards resistances of 38000/38500 and 3400 respectively. Unless ye above mentioned resistances break, it will be difficult for the indices to maintain the bullish momentum for the medium term. Nifty has fallen sharply but could.bounve back to 24800 while above support at 24400. Else, failure to hold above 24400 can bring in fresh bearishness towards 24200/24000. Watch price action at 24400.  

The Dow (42519.64, +0.51%) has risen well today and needs to break above the resistance region of 42500-43000 for continued upmove towards 44000-46000 eventually. However, we would be cautious around 43000 to see if any short corrective fall takes place which can keep the 41000-43000 range to hold for some more time.

DAX (24091.62, +0.67%) has risen well and can test resistance near 24500 from where a short correction can be possible to 24000 or lower.

Nifty (24542.50,-0.70%) has plunged contrary towards the lower end of our expected range of 24500/24400. Failure to bounce back in the next few sessions from support near 24400 can turn it bearish towards 24200-24000. Immediate upside could be curbed at 24800 in case a bounce is seen.
 
Nikkei (37759.83, +0.84%) has risen well and could test 38000-38500 before declining back to 37000.

Shanghai (3371.43, +0.28%) has risen and could test the upper end of the 3400-3340 range in the next few sessions. Thereafter, it is to be seen if the index can break above 3400 or declines back towards 3340.

Crude prices are trading below resistance levels, indicating potential declines towards $ 62-60 (Brent) and $ 60-58 (WTI) in the near term. Gold remains strong targeting $ 3,450–$ 3,500 and Silver eyeing $ 35.50–$ 36.00. Copper has rebounded above $ 4.80, and looks bullish towards $ 5.00–$ 5.10. Natural gas is stable above $ 3.70, with scope for a rise towards $ 4.10.

Brent ($ 65.58) is trading just below its immediate resistance, and as long as the resistance holds, we maintain our view of a potential decline towards $ 62–$ 60 in the near term.

WTI ($ 63.33) is holding below its immediate resistance, and while it remains below this level, a fall towards $ 60–$ 58 can be expected in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,387.20) experienced a slight dip yesterday, but the overall outlook remains bullish with a potential rise towards $ 3,450–$ 3,500 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 34.79) dipped to a low of $ 34.17 yesterday but has rebounded today. A rise towards $ 35.50–$ 36.00 can be expected in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.8780) fell to a low of $ 4.71 but has since bounced back, closing above $ 4.80 yesterday. We continue to expect a rise towards $ 5.00–$ 5.10 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.7010) is trading above $ 3.70, and while it remains so, a rise towards $ 3.90–$ 4.10 looks likely in the coming weeks.

22:30 04:00 AU PMI
… Previous -26.5

1:30 07:00 AU GDP
… Expected 0.4% … Previous 0.6%

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
… 58.3 …Expected 61.2 … Previous 58.7

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp K
… Expected 110.0 … Previous 62.0

14:00 19:30 BOC Meeting
… Expected 2.50 … Previous 2.75

DATA Yesterday
……………
1:45 07:15 CN PMI
… 51.8 … Expected 50.8 … Previous 50.4 …Actual 48.3

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
… 0.4 … Expected 0.2 … Previous 0.1 …Actual -0.1

9:00 14:30 EU Unemp
… – … Expected 6.2% … Previous 6.2% …Actual 6.2