The Dollar Index has dipped within 99-98 region driven by Yen strength while Euro has scope to dip to 1.16. The EURINR has dipped and needs to sustain above 110 to rise further else cna be dragged down to 109-108 region. EURJPY and USDJPY may trade within 182-184 and 157-159 region respectively. USDCNY has dipped too and could test 6.81 before bouncing back again towards 6.8550. Pound has dipped below 1.36 and could have scope to test 1.35/34 while Aussie can test 0.7250 before facing any rejection towards 0.71. USDINR needs to fall back below 94.75 and lower to head towards 94.50/30 else can rally to 95.30/50.
Dollar Index (98.508) is likely to continue within the 98-99 range unless a breakout on either side of the range is seen.
EURUSD (1.1686) has dipped below 1.17 and has scope to test 1.16 while below 1.17 in the next few days.
EURINR (111.0823) has dipped for the near term. Now while below 111, view can be bearish.
EURJPY (183.73) has dipped slightly. A near term range of 182-184 is likely to hold with some chances of a rise above 184 towards 185/186.
Dollar-Yen (157.23) is holding above 157 and while that holds, we may expect a rise to 158/159 intact for the next few sessions.
USDCNY (6.8295) has interim resistance near 6.855 and higher near 6.87 below which the pair can dip towards in the near term. Immediate range of 6.81-6.8550 is likely to hold.
Aussie (0.7155) has dipped today but has scope to trade within the 0.71 -0.73 region.
Pound (1.3524) is likely to trade within the 1.35/34 for the near term.
USDINR (95.0670) tested 95.0975 before closing at the high. If the pair does not come down below 94.75 in the near term, we may expect a rise back towards 95.30/95.50 levels initially.
The US Treasury Yields have risen back sharply thereby reducing the chances of the dip to test their support. Bullish view is intact. They can rise more going forward. The German Yields have also reversed higher. Though the outlook is positive to see more rise. But it is not clear whether they can rise from here itself or after some more dip. The 10Yr GoI is managing to hold higher. A strong follow-through rise is needed from here to go higher. We will have to wait and watch.
The US 10Yr (4.44%) and 30Yr (5.01%) Treasury yields have risen back sharply. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr) on the upside. Support is at 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr).
The German 10Yr (3.08%) and 30Yr (3.58%) yields have risen back. The outlook is positive to see 3.3% (10Yr) and 3.7% (30Yr) on the upside. But will that happen straight-away or after a dip to 3%-2.95% (10Yr) and 3.5% (30Yr) is not clear.
The 10Yr GoI (7.0194%) oscillates around 7%. A strong follow-through rise is needed from here to go up to 7.1% and higher. Support is in the 6.95%-6.9% region.
Global equities remain under pressure as renewed Middle East tensions weigh on sentiment. Dow can decline further towards 48500-48000, while DAX may stay range bound between 23500-25000. Nifty is also likely to trade within a broad 24500-23500 range after failing to hold higher levels. Nikkei remains capped below 60000 and may decline towards 59000-58500. Shanghai remains closed for Labor Day and will reopen tomorrow.
Dow (49103, +0.05%) has fallen sharply in line with our expectations due to renewed tensions in the Middle East. It can decline further towards 48500-48000 in the near term.
DAX (24009, -0.02%) has fallen back sharply following the drone attack by Iran. A broad range of 23500-25000 can hold for some time.
Nifty (24,119.20, +0.51%) has closed lower after testing a high of 24290.20 yesterday. A broad range of 24500-23500 can hold for some time.
Nikkei (59535, +0.07%) is holding below 60000 and needs to sustain below this level to see a decline towards 59000-58500.
Shanghai (4112.2, +0.11%) is closed for Labor Day and will reopen tomorrow.
Crude prices have rebounded sharply on renewed geopolitical tensions. Brent may trade within $ 100-$ 120 and WTI within $ 95-$ 115 until clearer direction emerges. Precious metals remain under pressure with Gold likely to decline towards $ 4500 and Silver towards $ 70. Copper has weakened and may stay range bound between $ 6.00-$ 5.80. Natural Gas can continue to trade within the $ 2.80-$ 2.55 range for now.
Brent ($ 113.46) has bounced back sharply to a high of $ 115.30 yesterday due to fresh drone attacks by Iran. The market may remain volatile and a broad range of $ 100-$ 120 can hold for some time until further directional clarity emerges.
WTI ($ 104.16) has bounced back sharply to a high of $ 107.46. The market remains highly volatile and can remain within a range of $ 95-$ 115 for some time.
Gold ($ 4547.60) has fallen in line with our expectations and can decline further towards $ 4500 in the near term.
Silver ($ 73.44) has fallen and can decline towards $ 70 in the near term.
Copper ($ 5.8850) has fallen sharply and can remain within a range of $ 6.00-$ 5.80 for some time.
Natural Gas ($ 2.8320) is rising and can trade within a $ 2.80-$ 2.55 range for some time.
GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBA Meeting
…Market 4.35 …Previous 4.10
GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 CH CPI
…Market 0.30 …Previous 0.31
GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Trade Balance
-67.61 …Market -59.08 …Previous -57.35
GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US New Home Sales
579 …Market 668 …Previous 587
DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
…Market 55.9 …Previous 53.9
GMT 7:30 IST 13:00 CH PMI
…Market 52.0 …Previous 53.3
GMT 8:00 IST 13:30 EU PMI
…Market 52.2 …Previous 51.6