Strong Dollar Index suggests a possible rise to 100-101 while Euro would test 1.16 and a break lower could trigger a decline towards 1.15/1.14. USDJPY is almost near 159 and a break higher would take it towards 160-161 soon. Aussie and Pound have declined well on strong Dollar and could be headed towards 0.71/70 and 1.3250/32 respectively. The EURJPY can trade within the 183.80-185.50 region, while the EURINR may test support at 111.35, a break below which would take it lower towards 110.50-110. USDCNY has recovered well above 6.80 and ca now test 6.83/84. USDINR had tested 96.1425 last week before closing below 96. Strong Dollar against other major currencies raises concern for a possible rise in the USDINR also beyond 96.00-96.14 today.

Dollar Index (99.38) has risen further, continuing the rise seen in the last few sessions. The index now has scope to head towards 100-101 on a break past 99.50. An immediate decline from current levels is needed for the prevention of such a rise.

EURUSD (1.1612) is headed towards the crucial level of 1.16. Only a break below 1.16, if seen, will open downside targets of 1.15/1.14 for the medium term.

EURINR (111.4366) is trading just above interim support at 111.35, a break below which will be further bearish for a decline towards 111-110.50 in the near to medium term.

EURJPY (184.58) has bounced slightly after attempts in the last 2-sessiosns to dip. However, a near term range of 183.80-185.50 may hold for the next few sessions. Thereafter, a breakout on either side of the range would give cues on further direction.

Dollar-Yen (158.88) is nearing 159, a break above which looks likely for the pair to head towards 160-161 in the coming sessions.

USDCNY (6.8158) has moved up above 6.80 on Dollar strength, contrary to our expectations of a dip to 6.78/75. Now while it remains higher, it can target 6.8350 in the next few sessions.
Aussie (0.7128) has fallen sharply and could be headed towards 0.71/70 in the upcoming sessions.

Pound (1.3311) has fallen sharply below 1.3450 and resumed decline towards 1.3250/1.32 from where a bounce back can be seen in the medium term.

USDINR (95.97) tested 96.1425 on Friday before closing lower for the week. Today, with the Dollar Index trading strongly, it would be important to see if the pair would continue to move up towards 96.50 and higher or decline below 96 towards 95.75/50.

The US Treasury Yields have surged on Friday and are now trading well beyond our expected levels. While the momentum sustains, the yields have potential to rise more in the coming days. The German Yields have made a bullish breakout as expected. They have room to rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI has risen, breaking above its intermediate resistance. While this break sustains, the yield can go further higher.

The US 10Yr (4.63%) and 30Yr (5.15%) Treasury yields surged on Friday. If they sustain above 4.55% (10Yr) and 5.10% (30Yr), then there is potential to target 4.95%-5% (10Yr) and 5.35%-5.4% (30Yr) going forward. We will have to wait and see.

The German 10Yr (3.18%) and 30Yr (3.69%) yields have made a bullish breakout above 3.15% and 3.65% respectively as expected. The 10Yr can rise to 3.3%. The 30Yr has to breach its immediate resistance at 3.7% to go further higher. Have to wait and see.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0644) has risen above 7.05% as expected. While this break sustains, 7.1%-7.15% can be seen on the upside.

Equities broader look weak for the near term. The Dow has come down failing to sustain the break. It can fall within its 48700-50200 range. DAX looks vulnerable to break 23600 and fall to 23000. Nikkei is coming down as expected. It has room to see 60000-59000 on the downside. Shanghai remains lower and can fall to 4050-4030. Nifty can fall to 23000 on a break below 23600.

Dow (49526.17, -1.07%) has come down failing to sustain the break above 50000. This can continue to keep it inside the 48700-50200 range. A range breakout will give clarity on the next leg of move.

DAX (23950.57, -2.07%) has come down sharply. It looks vulnerable for a fall to 23000 this week. A break below 23600 can trigger this fall.

Nifty (23643.50, -0.19%) has come down. A break below 23600 can drag it down to 23,000 and even lower. A sustained rise above 24,000 is needed to turn the short-term outlook positive.

Nikkei (60646, -1.24%) has come down well below our expected level of 61000. It can fall further to 60000-59000.

Shanghai (4137, +0.04%) remains lower. Near-term outlook is weak to see a fall to 4050-4030. Resistances are at 4160 and 4200.

Crude prices have surged following news of strike on nuclear power plant in UAE. Crude prices are poised for a rise while the precious metals lose steam on strong US Dollar today. Gold and Silver have declined well and look further bearish towards $ 4400/4200 and $ 70/65, respectively. Copper also looks bearish towards 6.00-5.80. Natural Gas has risen to $ 3 and needs to sustain higher to head towards $ 3.25 or higher.

Brent and WTI have dipped slightly but can still move higher within their broader $ 95-$ 115 and $ 90-$ 110 ranges, respectively. Gold has weakened after failing to break above $ 4800 and may decline further towards $ 4500. Silver has also turned weaker after failing near $ 90 and can fall towards $ 80-$ 75 in the near term. Copper has corrected sharply due to concerns over slowing Chinese demand and may decline further towards $ 6.20-$ 6.00. Natural Gas continues to trade within the broader $ 2.50-$ 3 range while remaining below the key $ 3 resistance.

Brent ($ 111.36) and WTI ($ 103.29) have risen sharply after UAE reported of a strike in a nuclear power plant. The crude prices may attempt to rise further towards $ 115-120 and $ 110-115, respectively before cooling off a bit.

Gold ($ 4537.20) and Silver ($ 75.30) have fallen to almost test our expected levels of $ 4500 and $ 75, respectively. With the US Dollar trading strong, the precious metals could lose some steam in the near term with possible declines towards $ 4400/4200 and $ 70/65 soon.

Copper ($ 6.24) is also down as expected. Having broken below immediate support at $ 6.25, the price can decline towards $ 6-5.80 soon.

Natural Gas ($ 3.033) has risen well over the last few sessions to test $ 3. A sustained break above current level ca n take the price towards $ 3.25-3.50 or higher.

GMT 20:00 IST 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
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DATA LAST FRIDAY
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GMT 9:30 IST 15:00 IN Trade bal
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GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 US Ind Production
-0.91 …Market 0.20 …Previous -0.49

GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 US Cap Utilization
75.11 …Market 75.80 …Previous 75.70