Fresh hopes from the US-Iran negotiations have brought down the Dollar Index, which could now target 98.50/98 while below 99. The Euro could trade within its earlier range of 1.16-1.1750. USDJPY is almost near 159, and a break higher would take it towards 160-161 soon. Aussie and Pound have risen back well, and if the rise sustains, they can test 0.72-0.7250 and 1.36/3650, respectively. The EURJPY can trade above 184 and slowly rise towards 185/186 in the coming sessions. EURINR may hold well above support at 111.35, but could see a dip today if the rise in the USDINR remains curbed. USDCNY has fallen back below 6.80 and can now test 6.78/75. USDINR may hold below 96.50 and see a pullback today towards 96 or lower.

Dollar Index (99.046) dipped from 99.409 yesterday on fresh hopes of US-Iran negotiations. We may expect a dip to 98.50/98.00 before again pausing for a rise.

EURUSD (1.1649) is holding well above 1.16 and could trade within its earlier range of 1.16-1.1750 for some sessions.

EURINR (112.2538) has managed to bounce back sharply from above the support at 111.35 mentioned over the last couple of days. However, we may expect a dip today while below 112.50, if the rise in the USDINR is curbed.

EURJPY (185.14) bounced back from 184.265 itself and has risen above 185 now. While above 184, chances of a fall to 183-182 are reduced, and instead the cross pair can now rise towards 186.

Dollar-Yen (158.89) remains stable just below 159. A slow rise to 159-160 or higher can be seen in the near term.

USDCNY (6.7940) has not been able to sustain the rise above 6.80 and has instead fallen back lower. While below 6.80, we may expect a slow and eventual decline towards 6.78/75.

Aussie (0.7147) tested 0.71187 yesterday but bounced back from there. While above 0.71, we may expect a range of 0.71-0.7250 to hold well. Only a break below 0.71, if seen can take the price lower to 0.70.

Pound (1.3420) rose well yesterday from 1.33022 to move back above 1.34. While above 1.33, the price can move back towards 1.35/36, negating our downside expectation of falling to 1.3250/32.

USDINR (96.35) made fresh high of 96.3875 yesterday. We may expect some pullback to 96.00 or lower today.

The US Treasury and the German Yields have come down slightly. The Treasury yields have support to limit the downside. While the support holds, the bias is positive to see more rise in the coming weeks. The German yields on the other hand have to rise back immediately in order to go higher and avoid more fall. We will have to wait and see. The 10Yr GoI is heading higher as expected. An extended rise is also looking likely now.

The US 10Yr (4.60%) and 30Yr (5.13%) Treasury yields have come down slightly. While they sustain above 4.55% (10Yr) and 5.10% (30Yr), there is potential for a rise to 4.95%-5% (10Yr) and 5.35%-5.4% (30Yr). Wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (3.15%) and 30Yr (3.67%) yields come down. The 10Yr has to rise back immediately to go up to 3.3% and avoid an intermediate fall to 3.05%. The 30Yr can fall to 3.6% and lower as it has failed to breach the resistance at 3.7%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1313) is heading up towards 7.15% as expected. An extended rise to 7.25% also looks more likely.

The Dow Jones has risen back but remains well within its range. It can continue to oscillate in the sideways range, and we will have to wait for a breakout to get clarity. DAX has risen back sharply. But a strong follow-through rise is needed to negate the danger of the fall to 23000. Nikkei and Shanghai are struggling to rise back and remain weak. They can fall to 60000-59000 and 4050-4030 respectively. The Nifty has made a strong recovery from its low yesterday. A strong follow-through rise above 23800 will help it go higher and avoid the danger of seeing 23000.

Dow (49686.12, +0.32%) has bounced and remains well within the 48700-50200 range. We will have to wait for the range breakout to know the next direction of move.

DAX (24307.92, +1.49%) has risen back sharply. The danger of the fall to 23000 has eased. But the index has to rise above 23600 to completely negate it.

Nifty (23649.95, +0.03%) recovered very well from the low of 23317 yesterday. A strong follow-through rise above 23800 is needed to go up 24000 and higher. Only then the danger of the fall to 23000 will ease completely.

Nikkei (60609.68, -0.34%) seems to be struggling to rise back. That keeps it vulnerable for a fall to 60000-59000. A break below 60500 can trigger this fall.

Shanghai (4118.70, -0.34%) is facing resistance around 4150. That keeps intact our bearish view of seeing 4050-4030 on the downside.

Brent and WTI have dipped on fresh hopes from the US-Iran negotiations but are likely to remain elevated and volatile. Gold and Silver seem to be holding above $ 4500 and $ 75, respectively for now and may see a slow rise in the near term. Copper has found some support at $ 6.20, above which it can rise to $ 6.50. Natural Gas may continue to trade within the broader $ 2.80-$ 3.25 range.

Brent ($ 109.99) and WTI ($ 102.99) have dipped after hopes from US-Iran negotiations and Iranian report stating that Washington has proposed a temporary waiver of oil sanctions until a final deal is reached. While crude prices could be volatile, we may expect trade above $ 100 for now with a maximum upside capped at $ 115/120.

Gold ($ 4558.30) and Silver ($ 76.94) seems to be holding above our earlier targets of $ 4500 and $ 75, respectively. While the levels hold as immediate support, we may not see a near term decline to $ 4400/4200 and $ 70/65 but may not be completely negated in the medium term. $ 4800 and $ 90 are near term resistances on the Gold and Silver prices that may cap the upside for now.

Copper ($ 6.27) seems to have bounced from a very near-term interim support at $ 6.20 above which there could be some chances of a bounce back towards 6.50. Only a sustained break below $ 6.20, if seen would take the price down towards $ 6-5.80.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0220) has dipped slightly while trading above $ 3. A sustained break above $ 3.25 is needed for the price to slowly move up towards $ 4. Till then, we may expect the broad $ 3.25-2.80 region to hold.

GMT 23:50 IST 05:20 JP GDP
…Market 0.4% …Previous 0.3%

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK Unemp
5.17 …Market 4.90 …Previous 4.90

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
…Previous 2.32

DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 5:30 IST 11:00 CN Retail Sales
…Market 2.0 …Previous 1.7

GMT 5:30 IST 11:00 CN IIP (YoY)
…Market 6.0 …Previous 5.7

{GMT 20:00 IST 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
130.56 …Market 82.40 …Previous 58.60 …Actual 81.3