Amidst the peace deal talks, Iran seems to be stuck on some key issues before arriving at a final agreement. This is keeping the Dollar Index strong above 99, preventing too much of optimism from seeping into the currency prices at the moment. In such a scenario, the Dollar Index can remain stable above 99 while Euro can trade within the 1.16-1.1670 region. EURINR, EURJPY and USDJPY look bullish for the near term towards 111.80-112, 187/188 and 160-161, respectively. USDCNY can trade within 6.78-6.80 region for now. A break below 6.78 could trigger a decline to 6.76/75. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.71-0.72 and 1.34-1.35, respectively, while Rupee saw weakness towards 95.69 yesterday and may continue to weaken towards 96.00-96.35.

Dollar Index (99.128) is holding steady above 99 and could trade in a consolidative mode within 98.80-99.50 for a few sessions while the US-Iran deal is stuck on the resolution of some key issues.

EURUSD (1.1634) can trade within a narrow range of 1.16-1.1650/70 for the next few sessions.

EURINR (111.5084) has risen on a stable Euro and a weaker Indian Rupee yesterday. A further rise to 111.80-112 looks possible in the near term.

EURJPY (185.33) has moved up above 185. If the rise sustains, we may expect a slow rise towards 187-188.

Dollar-Yen (159.27) has risen and could be headed towards 160-161 as expected. The rise can be possible while the Dollar Index holds above 99.

USDCNY (6.7822) could trade within 6.78-6.80 region. A break below 6.78, if seen, would trigger a faster dip to 6.76/75. Else, if the price sustains above 6.78 just now, a bounce back to 6.80/83 can be possible.

Aussie (0.7158) could test very near-term resistance at 0.72, below which trade in the 0.71-0.72 region is possible. Only a break above 0.72 would take it higher towards 0.7250-0.73.

Pound (1.3450) has dipped below 1.35, unable to sustain higher. A near-term trade within 1.34-1.35 looks possible.

USDINR (95.69) rose sharply to test 95.69 and closed at the day’s high, breaking above our expected 95.50. If the rise sustains, we may expect a test of 96.00-96.35 on the upside before pausing for a reversal.

The US Treasury Yields are coming closer to their key support. There is limited room on the downside. We expect the yields to sustain above their support and rise back going forward. The German Yields have bounced but may not sustain. We expect them to fall more before resuming their broader upmove. The 10Yr GoI has dipped below a crucial level. Failure to rise back immediately can drag it further lower in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.48%) and 30Yr (5.01%) Treasury yields are coming down towards their respective supports of 4.45% and 4.95% (30Yr) as expected. We expect the support hold and see a rise back to 4.6% (10Yr) and 5.1% (30Yr) and even higher.

The German 10Yr (2.98%) and 30Yr (3.52%) yields have bounced but may not sustain. A dip to 2.9%-2.85% (10Yr) and 3.45% (30Yr) is more likely to be seen before the yields rise back towards 3.1%-3.2% (10Yr) and 3.65%-3.7% (30Yr)

The 10Yr GoI (6.9943%) has dipped and closed just below 7%. Failure to rise back immediately cand rag it down to 6.9%. Wait and watch.

Dow tested 51209 in line with expectations and while above 50000, the broader outlook remains bullish towards 51500-52000. DAX has corrected slightly, but while above 25000, it can still rise towards 26000. Nifty failed to hold above 24,000 and may decline further towards 23,800-23,600 while remaining below this resistance. Nikkei continues to remain strong above 64000 and can rise further towards 66000-66500. Shanghai needs a sustained break above 4160 to strengthen further towards 4250, else it risks falling back towards 4050 or lower.

Dow (50,559.70, +0.07%) tested a high of 51209 in line with our expectations but closed lower at 50547 on Friday. While above 50000, our view remains intact for a rise towards 51500-52000.

DAX (25,285.10, +0.13%) has fallen back, but while above 25000, the view remains intact for a rise towards 26000.

Nifty (23,913.70, -0.49%) failed to sustain above 24,000 and closed lower yesterday. While below 24,000, it has enough room to fall further towards 23,800-23,600 over the week.

Nikkei (65860.46, +0.53%) outlook remains intact for a rise towards 66000-66500 while above 64000.

Shanghai (4148.98, +0.11%) needs a sustained break above 4160 to turn convincingly bullish for a rise towards 4250 and higher. Otherwise, it can fall back towards 4050 or even lower. Wait and watch.

Brent and WTI remain weak and can decline further towards $ 95-$ 90 and $ 90-$ 85 respectively in the near term. Gold and Silver continue to hold a bearish outlook towards $ 4400 and $ 70 unless they see sustained breaks above $ 4600 and $ 80 respectively. Copper remains positive while above $ 6.25 and can rise towards $ 6.60. Natural Gas is holding above the key $ 3 support and can extend gains towards $ 3.20-$ 3.25 in the coming sessions.

Brent ($ 98.75) and WTI ($ 92.83) can decline towards $ 95-$ 90 and $ 90-$ 85 respectively in the near term.

Gold ($ 4514.70) and Silver ($ 77.78) outlook remains bearish towards $ 4400 and $ 70 respectively in the near term unless a sustained break above $ 4600 and $ 80 is seen.

Copper ($ 6.44) has scope to rise towards $ 6.60 while remaining above $ 6.25.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0590) is trading above $ 3 and can rise further towards $ 3.20-$ 3.25 in the coming sessions.

NO MAJOR DATA IS RELEASING TODAY.

DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 13:00 IST 18:30 US Case Schiller
0.82 …Previous 0.86 …Actual 0.88

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Cons Conf
95.05 …Previous 93.80 …Actual 93.10