The Dollar index has risen well as expected and looks further bullish while Euro can test 1.13. USDJPY has risen past 158 and is headed towards 160 while EURJPY can rise to 182. USDINR has also risen as expected and is headed towards 96.25/50 on a decisive break above 96. Aussie could test 0.69 while support at 1.32 may hold on the Pound.

Dollar Index (101.27) has risen well breaking above 101.25. The next target is 101.50-102 which can be achieved in the next couple of weeks.
 
EURUSD (1.1380) trades well below 1.14 and could be headed towards lower support at 1.13 in the next few sessions from where a bounce can be expected towards 1.14/1.15 again in the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (158.66) is trading well above 158 and has scope to rise further towards 159/160 in the coming days.

EURJPY (180.51) seems to be holding above crucial support at 178 above which the view is bullish for the near to medium term for an eventual rise to 180/182 or higher. 

EURINR (109.1580) seems to be holding above 109 for now which can slowly take it higher towards 110. Only failure to hold above 109 will open chances of testing lower support at 108-107.5.

USDCNY (6.7123) trades above 6.71. A decisive break above 6.72/7250 is needed to negate further downside and to turn bullish for the coming days.

Aussie (0.7013) could have scope to test 0.69 while below 0.7050. Thereafter, a rebound for the medium term is possible.

Pound (1.3217) has crucial support at 1.32 above which we may expect a sharp rebound for the medium term back towards 1.34/35.

USDINR (95.9450) has been rising as expected. A break bove 96 will take it higher to 96.25-96.50 in the near term.

The US Treasury and the German Yields continue to move up. They both have come closer to our expected levels much faster than expected. If the momentum sustains, an extended rise is possible in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI opened with a wide gap-up and has closed on a strong note. It has room to rise further and test a key resistance. The price action thereafter will need a close watch for a reversal.

The US 10Yr (5.19%) and 30Yr (5.48%) yields continue to surge and have come up to 5.2% (10Yr) and 5.5% (30Yr) as expected. If the momentum sustains, an extended rise to 5.3%-5.35% (10Yr) and 5.65% (30Yr) looks possible from here.

The German 10Yr (3.60%) and 30Yr (3.86%) Yields have risen further. The rise to 3.7% (10Yr) and 4%-4.1% (30Yr) is happening in line with our expectation.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1067%) opened with a wide gap-up and has closed higher. The expected rise to 7.15% is happening much faster than expected. There are chances for the yield to reverse lower after this rise. So, need to watch closely around 7.15%.

Dow remains weak and can decline towards 51500-51000. DAX needs to sustain above 25500 to avoid a decline towards 25250-25000. Nifty remains vulnerable below 23000, with a break opening 22750-22500. Nikkei can decline towards 65000-64000 while below 67000. Shanghai remains weak and can test 3850, keeping the 3850-3950 range intact.

Dow (51704, -0.03%) is falling in line with our expectations and can decline towards 51500-51000 in the coming sessions.

DAX (25558, +0.51%) fell to a low of 25337 yesterday but failed to sustain lower. It has bounced back and opened higher today above 25500. It needs a sustained break below 25500 for a further decline towards 25250-25000. Otherwise, it can bounce back towards 26000.

Nifty (23,446.80, +0.50%) fell to a low of 23046.15 yesterday in line with our expectations. It remains to be seen whether the index sustains above 23000 or breaks below it. A break below 23000 could extend the bearishness towards 22750-22500.

Nikkei (65875, +0.24%) can decline towards 65000-64000 while below the resistance near 67000.

Shanghai (3888.40, -1.22%) has fallen sharply in line with our expectations and can test 3850 in the coming sessions. This would keep the earlier mentioned 3850-3950 range intact for some time.

Brent and WTI have fallen amid reports of potential US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz. Gold needs to hold $ 4300 for a bounce towards $ 4500-$ 4600. Silver can recover towards $ 66-$ 68 while above $ 63. Copper remains vulnerable towards $ 6.70-$ 6.60. Natural Gas can test $ 3.00 before potentially recovering towards $ 3.50-$ 3.60.

Brent ($ 105.93) and WTI ($ 93.54) fell back from their highs after a Reuters report said US-Iran negotiators are exploring a phased deal. The deal could see Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the US lift its blockade. The direction remains uncertain, with prices possibly declining further or bouncing back.

Gold ($ 4325.20) needs to hold above $ 4300 to avoid further weakness towards $ 4200-$ 4000. Holding this level could produce a bounce towards $ 4500-$ 4600.

Silver ($ 64.47) has fallen to $ 63.51 in line with our expectations. It can bounce back towards $ 66-$ 68 while above $ 63.

Copper ($ 6.77) remains vulnerable to a fall towards $ 6.70-$ 6.60 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.2650) tested a high of $ 3.3950 yesterday, as expected. However, it opened lower near $ 3.30 today and could test $ 3.00. This could be the maximum downside for now, with a possible recovery towards $ 3.50-$ 3.60.

23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
…Expected -16 …Previous -14

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
Expn -0.6 % …Expected -0.3 % …Previous 1.1 %

DATA YESTERDAY:-
—————
Australia Labour Force
…Expected 20.9 K …Previous -15.9 K …Actual 39.5 K

GER IFO Business Climate
Expn 89.2 …Expected 89.0 …Previous 88.8 …Actual 89.9

GER IFO Business Situations Index
Expn. 88.9 …Expected 89.0 …Previous 88.5 …Actual 89.5

GER IFO Business Expectations Index
Expn.89.5 …Expected 89.3 …Previous 89.0 …Actual 90.4

SNB Mtg
…Expected 0.00 % …Previous 0.00 % …Actual 0.00 %

US Current Account Balance
Expn. -206 $ bln …Expected -259 $ bln …Previous -213 $ bln …Actual -246 $ bln

US New Home Sales
Expn. 617 K …Expected 619 K …Previous 607 K …Actual 684 k