The  Dollar Index has scope to test 98.50 while Euro could continue trade within 1.1850-1.16 region. USDJPY can test 158 but thereafter a decisive break on the downside is needed to confirm bearishness. EURJPY is headed towards 186, a bounce from where can take it back to 88 while EURINR may test 111-112 while above 109/108.  Pound needs to sustain above 1.35 to move higher towards 1.37 else can dip back to 1.34/33. Aussie can test 0.72 in the near term while it holds above 0.71.  USDCNY may trade within 6.80-6.85 region. But any break lower would open downside chances of 6.78/75.USDINR may dip towards the lower end of the 93.50-92.50 region.

Dollar Index (98.302) has bounced from 97.632 and may continue to rise towards 98.50 in the near term with possible downside intact at 96.

EURUSD (1.1758) is stable below 1.18. A broad range of 1.1850-1.16 may hold for the next few weeks.

EURINR (108.8689) has moved back towards 109. While above 108, there is scope for a rise back to 110/111 zone.

EURJPY (186.77) currently trades well below 188. We may expect a bounce from 186 which can take the pair back towards 188.

Dollar-Yen (158.86) is trading just below 159. A rise from here will take the price towards 160.50. Else, a sustained break below 158 can be further bearish towards 157-156.

USDCNY (6.8190) has dipped back below 6.82 and if the price does not attempt to bounce back to 6.85 higher there can be higher chances of seeing a break below 6.80 towards 6.78/75 eventually.

Aussie (0.7152)   needs to hold above 0.71 to slowly rise towards 0.72 or higher. Else we may expect the currency to fall back towards 0.70.

Pound (1.35) needs to sustain above 1.35 for a slow rise to 1.39 in the medium term. Else it can fall towards 1.34/33.

USDINR (92.93) could have scope to see a dip towards 92.50 today while it holds below 93.

The US Treasury and the German Yields have come down sharply on Friday on the back of the US-Iran war de-escalation. The Treasury Yields have been struggling to rise for some time. That keeps them vulnerable to fall more before a strong reversal is seen. The German yields can also fall more if they fail to bounce back immediately. The 10Yr GoI has bounced. But it has to break the immediate resistance to move higher and ease the downside pressure. Else it can remain stuck inside a range.

The US 10Yr (4.27%) and 30Yr (4.90%) Treasury yields continue their struggle to rise. While below 4.35% (10Yr) and 4.95% (30Yr) a fall to 4.2%-4.15% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) can be seen first. That will delay the rise to 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.05%-5.1% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.96%) and 30Yr (3.54%) yields have come down sharply contrary to our expectation. Failure to rise back immediately can drag them down to 2.9% (10Yr) and 3.5%-3.45% (30Yr). It will then delay the rise to 3.2% (10Yr) and 3.65% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.9049%) is attempting to bounce. A strong break above 6.95% is needed to go up to 7% and higher. Else the yield can remain stuck between 6.85% and 6.95%.

Global equities saw strong gains on positive Middle East developments but are now facing resistance near key levels. Dow needs a break above 50000 to rise towards 50250-50500, while DAX must sustain above 25000 to move towards 25250-25500. Nifty may open higher towards 24800-25000 but could see intraday selling pressure. Nikkei has pulled back after testing 60000 and needs a sustained break above it to rise towards 61000-61500. Shanghai remains strong above 4050 and can move towards 4100-4150.

Dow (49300, -0.69%) surged to a high of 49924 on Friday in line with our expectations after news of the Strait of Hormuz opening, although it was later closed again. It needs to break above 50000 to rise further towards 50250-50500.

DAX (24611, -1.03%) surged to a high of 24966 on Friday following positive developments regarding the Middle East conflict. Today it has opened lower and needs a sustained break above 25000 to move higher towards 25250-25500.

Nifty (24,353.55, +0.65%) closed just below 24400 on Friday. It may open with a gap up near 24800-25000 due to positive news on the Strait of Hormuz late Friday, although it was closed again the next day. It can see a gap up opening but may fall during the session.

Nikkei (59165, -0.44%) in line with our expectations, tested a high of 60130 on Friday and has opened lower today. A sustained break above 60000 is needed to move higher towards 61000-61500.

Shanghai (4075.529, +0.59%) has risen above 4050 and continues to move higher, with potential to rise towards 4100-4150 in the coming sessions.

Crude prices have corrected sharply on easing supply concerns and remain weak below $ 100. Brent can fall towards $ 90-$ 85 or even $ 80, while WTI may decline towards $ 80-$ 75 in the near term. Precious metals remain firm with Gold likely to rise towards $ 4900-$ 5000 and Silver towards $ 82-$ 85. Copper continues to stay positive and can move towards $ 6.15-$ 6.25. Natural Gas has rebounded and may rise towards $ 2.80-$ 2.90 while holding above $ 2.55.

Brent ($ 94.67) has fallen sharply to a low of $ 86.09 on Friday, contrary to our expectations, after news that Iran had opened the Strait of Hormuz for commercial ships, although it was later closed again. While below $ 100, a fall towards $ 90-$ 85 or even $ 80 can be seen in the near term.

WTI ($ 86.65) has fallen sharply, negating our earlier bullish view, and tested a low of $ 78.97 on Friday. It has opened higher but can decline towards $ 80-$ 75 in the near term.

Gold ($ 4827.80) can gradually rise towards our earlier mentioned levels of $ 4900-$ 5000.

Silver ($ 80.61) can rise towards $ 82-$ 85 in the near term.

Copper ($ 6.08) remains positive and can rise towards $ 6.15-$ 6.25.

Natural Gas ($ 2.7140) has bounced back and is inching up gradually. While above $ 2.55, it can move higher towards $ 2.80-$ 2.90.

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
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