The Markets see a corrective movement after the sharp volatility that seeped in after the US CPI data released earlier this week. The Dollar Index holds above 104 and can test 105-105.50 while Euro has fallen from 1.09 and could test 1.08/1.0750 soon. EURJPY continues to remain bullish towards 165/166. USDJPY holds above 150 and could trade within 152-150 for some time. Aussie could trade within 0.6350-0.6550. The pound fall towards 1.23 while below 1.2550. USDCNY can rise back towards 7.30 while above 7.22. USDRUB has bounced well from 88 and could have scope to see a slow rise towards 93/94 soon. EURINR has dipped slightly and can test 89.50 while below 91. USDINR can rise towards the 83.20/30 zone again.
Dollar Index (104.53) has bounced from 104 and could rise to 105-105.50 before falling back again. While above 104, immediate view is bullish.
EURUSD (1.0832) has dipped from 1.0887 and could test 1.08-1.0750 before rising again towards 1.09/1.0950.
EURJPY (163.89) has been stable over yesterday and today and looks positive for a slow rise towards 165/166.
Dollar-Yen (151.28) has bounced well from 150 and could be ranged within 152-150 for a few sessions.
USDCNY (7.2590) is bouncing from 7.2375 and could lead to a slow rise towards 7.30 soon.
Aussie (0.6465) is holding well below 0.6550 as expected. Now, a fall towards 0.64-0.6350 looks possible in the next few sessions.
Pound (1.2384) has been coming off sharply from 1.25. Immediate support is seen near 1.23 or slightly lower.
USDRUB (89.5699) almost fell to 88 yesterday before bouncing from there. Now, while above 88, scope for a rise towards 92-94 looks high.
USDINR (83.1475) came down to 83 with a gap down opening as expected yesterday but could not break lower and instead rose to close above 83.10. Chances are high that the pair will head back to 83.20/30 zone soon.
EURINR (90.1529) tested 90.6824 yesterday before coming off sharply from there. While below 91, the pair may fall towards 89.5 again.
The US Treasury yields have bounced back. The downside from here is limited. We can expect the yields to remain above their supports. Overall, the Treasury yields can remain in a broad range for some time. The German yields have also bounced back. But one more leg of fall is likely to be seen before a sustained rise happens. The 10Yr GoI is coming down as expected. The 5Yr has broken its crucial supports and looks vulnerable to fall more.
The US 10Yr (4.50%) and the 30Yr (4.66%) yields have bounced sharply. 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.55% (30Yr) are good supports that can limit the downside for now. While they hold, a bounce to 4.8% (10Yr) and 4.95%-5% (30Yr) is a possibility. Overall, the yields are likely to be in a broad range.
The German 10Yr (2.64%) and the 30Yr (2.87%) have bounced back. But we see good chances to test 2.5% (10Yr) and 2.6%-2.5% (30Yr) on the downside first before a reversal is seen.
The 10Yr GoI (7.2204%) is moving down towards 7.2%-7.15% as expected. Thereafter a bounce back to 7.25% is possible.
The 5Yr GOI (7.1973%) has broken its crucial support at 7.2%. While this break sustains, a further fall to 7.1% and even 7% is possible.
Dow Jones, DAX and Nifty looks bullish for the near term. Nikkei has fallen back as the resistance at 33500 has held well. Shanghai has declined towards 3050 but downside could be limited to 3025.
Dow (34991.21%) retains its momentum and can see an extended rise to 35400-35500. The price action thereafter will need a close watch.
DAX (15748.17, +0.86%) has closed well above 15650. While this sustains, the index can rise further up to 16000 and even 16500.
Nifty (19675.45, +1.19%) has risen well above 19600 contrary to our expectation. It can rise further to 19800-19850. Our bearish view of seeing 19000 stands negated for now.
Nikkei (33265, -0.76%) has fallen back as the resistance mentioned at 33500 has held well. While it remains below 33500, a dip towards 32500 can be seen.
Shanghai (3058.21, -0.48%) has declined towards 3050 failing to rise above 3080. But while above 3025, our bullish bias may remain intact for a rise towards 3100-3125 in the coming days.
Brent and WTI continues to dip and have scope to revisit their immediate support in the near term. Gold has declined after facing rejection from 1980. Whereas Silver and Copper have risen further and looks bullish to rise towards their immediate resistance. Natural Gas looks range bound within 3.3-2.9.
Brent ($ 80.44) has declined further below $ 80.50. View remains bearish for a test of $ 80-79 while below $ 84. A break below $ 79, if seen, can trigger a fall towards $ 75-74.
WTI ($ 76.11) has fallen towards $ 76 as the resistance at $ 80 has held well. A further fall towards $ 75-74 can be seen. Failure to hold above $ 74 can see a deeper fall towards $ 70.
Gold (1962.80) has declined after facing rejection from 1980. As mentioned, a rise past 1980 is needed to open doors towards 2000-2020. Else it can come down towards 1950-1940.
Silver (23.39) continues to move up and remains bullish for a rise towards 24 in the near term.
Copper (3.6955) tested a high of 3.7250 yesterday and has dipped slightly from there. There is scope for it to rise towards 3.75 or even 3.80 in the near term.
Natural Gas (3.1590) is consolidating below 3.3. A range of 3.3-2.9 can hold for some time.
0:30 6:00 Australia Labour Force
Expn 112.6K …Expected 22.8K …Previous 6.7K
13:30 19:00 US Philifed Index
Expn – …Expected -10.4 …Previous -9.0
14:15 19:45 US Industrial Production
Expn 0.2% …Expected -0.3% …Previous 0.3%
14:15 19:45 US Capacity Utilization
Expn 79.9% …Expected 79.4% …Previous 79.7%
21:00 2:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
Expn – …Expected 89.4 …Previous 63.5
23:50 5:20 JP GDP
Expn – …Expected-0.1% …Previous1.2%
7:00 12:30 UK CPI Y/Y
Expn 6.1% …Expected 4.7% …Previous 6.6%
9:00 14:30 IN Trade bal
Expn -22.18 …Expected – …Previous -19.37
10:00 15:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
Expn 0.4% …Expected -0.9% …Previous 0.6%
10:00 15:30 EU Trade Bal
Expn – …Expected 12.3 …Previous 11.9
13:30 19:00 US PPI
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.1% …Previous 0.5%
13:30 19:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
Expn 0.5 …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.2% …..Actual 0.0%
13:30 19:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
Expn 1.0% …Expected -0.3% …Previous 0.7% ….Actual -0.1%