The Dollar Index can head towards 107-108 in the near term if sustained above 106.75. Euro had slipped below 1.05 yesterday. If the ECB goes ahead with rate cuts today, it can extend the fall towards 1.0450 or even lower. The upside seems to be capped at 1.0550-1.0600. EURINR is coming off within its range of 90-88 which can hold for now. Aussie tested 0.6336 before rising back from there. Still, a rise past 0.6450 will be needed to head towards 0.65-0.66 in the near term. The Pound on the other hand looks ranged within a narrow region of 1.7-1.28. A break on either side will be needed for further directional clarity. USDCNY has again risen past 7.25 on the news that China will allow Yuan to weaken to prepare for Trump tariffs. While above 7.25, the previous targets of 7.30-735 seem to be back in the picture. USDJPY can rise higher towards 154-155 in the coming sessions while above 150. EURJPY remains bullish towards 162-163, while above 156. USDINR seems to hold the resistance of 84.85/87 quite well and can dip towards 84.75-84.70 in the coming sessions. Watch out for the IN-CPI data release and the ECB & SNB meetings scheduled today.

US CPI for Nov-24 (Y/Y% at 2.73%) came in line with the market expectations of a rise to 2.70% from the previous release of 2.58% for Oct-24. This led to speculations of possible rate cuts by FED next week. Dollar Index (106.55) witnessed a high of 106.806 before declining a bit from there. A sustained rise past 106.75 can take it higher to 107-108 in the near term.

EURUSD (1.0503) had slipped below 1.05 to the low of 1.0480 on Dollar strength. Currently, it has recovered a bit from the low but still the upside looks capped at 1.0550-1.0600 for now. ECB meeting is scheduled today wherein it is expected to cut the rates by 25 bps. If so, the Euro can fall towards 1.0450 or even lower before attempting to rise back gradually.

EURINR (89.1074) is coming off within its range of 90-88 but until a decisive break is seen on either side, the range is likely to persist for a while.

Dollar-Yen (152.23) is gradually rising as expected and if sustained, can test 154-155 in the coming sessions. Overall, its earlier range of 150-155 can hold for some time.

EURJPY (159.93) remained a bit volatile yesterday as it initially tested 158.64 on the downside before rising sharply to the high of 160.724. The cross, while sustained above current levels, has scope to extend the ongoing rise to 162-163. Overall, the view is bullish while it trades above the support at 156-157.

USDCNY (7.2650) rose significantly after the news came out that China will allow the yuan to weaken as they prepare for Trump tariffs. Such a rise past 7.25 has brought the previous targets of 7.30/35 back into the picture. Overall, the view remains bullish above 7.25 for now.

Aussie (0.6406) tested a low of 0.6336 yesterday in line with our view of seeing a fall towards 0.63, before rising back. The downside is anticipated to be limited to 0.63 for now. Still, a sustained break past 0.6450 will be needed to head towards 0.65-0.66 in the near term. Else it can be vulnerable to falling back towards 0.63.

Pound (1.2762) is consolidating within a narrow range of 1.27-1.28. A decisive break on either side will be needed for further directional clarity. A strong break past 1.28 can take it higher to 1.30. At the same time, any break below 1.27 can drag it further within its earlier range of 1.2750/70-1.2450.

USDINR (84.8130) seems to be holding well below the resistance near 84.85/87. While it holds, a dip towards 84.75-84.70 can be seen in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have risen above their immediate resistance after the inflation data release. A strong follow-through rise from here can take the yields higher and will negate the further fall. The US Headline CPI rose by 2.73% in November, up from 2.58% in October. The German yields continue to remain stable. Support is there to limit the downside from here. Bias is positive to see a rise in the yields going forward. The 10Yr GoI is moving up. There is room to rise more from here before falling back again.

The US 10Yr (4.27%) and 30Yr (4.48%) have risen above 4.25% (10Yr) and 4.45% (30Yr). A strong follow-through rise from here can take the yields up to 4.4%-4.5% (10Yr) and 4.65%-4.7% (30Yr). That will negate the fall to 4% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.12%) and the 30Yr (2.37%) yields continue to remain stable. Any fall from here will be limited to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr). Bias is bullish to see a rise to 2.3% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.7614%) is turning around and attempting to rise. If this sustains, a rise 6.8%-6.83% is a possibility. Thereafter a fall back to 6.7%-6.65% can happen. We will have to wait and watch.

Dow Jones remains bearish towards 43000 initially. DAX is holding well above support at 20200 as expected and can rise towards 20500/700 or even to 21000. Nifty has risen a bit but remains stable around 24600. An immediate range of 24550-24750 can hold for some time within an overall broader bullish picture. Nikkei rose to 40091.55 before easing off. While it sustains above 39500, bias remains bullish towards 41000-42000. Shanghai has risen a bit. Above 3400 view is bullish towards 3500.

The Dow (44148.56, -0.22%) continues to fall. Our bearish view is intact to see 43000 and 42000-41000 eventually. Intermediate support is at 43700.

DAX (20399.16, +0.34%) is rising back. Support at 20200 has held well as expected. That keeps intact the view of seeing a rise to 20500-20700 and even 21000. But be cautious as a corrective fall to 20000 and lower levels is possible after this rise.

Nifty (24641.80, +0.13%) remains stable around 24600. The near-term range of 24550-24750 can hold for some more time. However, the broader picture is bullish to see a rise to 25000 while above 24400.

Nikkei (3988105, +1.29%) is trading below 40000. A decisive rise past 40000 could push the index higher toward the 41000–42000 range. Alternatively, a break below 39500 may extend its decline toward 3900-38000.

Shanghai (3438.5059, +0.16%) is trading above 3400. As long as it holds above this level, a further rise toward 3500 looks probable. However, failure to hold above 3400 could lead the losses to support at 3350.

Crude prices have risen sharply after OPEC cut demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025. The prices can rise further towards 74-75 (Brent) and 71-72 (WTI) in the near term. Gold and Natural Gas can rally higher towards 2770-2800 and 3.5-3.6 respectively while Silver and Copper have immediate resistance levels which if hold can lead to a fall to 32.5-32.0 and 4.2 respectively in the near term.

Brent ($ 73.50) surged to a high of 73.75 after OPEC cut oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next for a fifth straight month. A further rise towards 74-75 can tske place in the near term.

WTI ($ 70.18) broke above 69 and rose to a high of 70.53. It can move further up towards 71-72.

Gold ($ 2750.10) continues its up trend and can rise towards 2770-2800.

Silver (32.88) is failing to rise past 33. Only a sustained break above 33 can take it further higher towards 33.5-34.0, else can fall back to 32.5-32.0.

Copper (4.2760) is facing rejection near 4.3. While below this level it can fall back to 4.2 in the near term. A sustained break above 4.3 will be needed to revive our earlier bullish outlook of 4.35-4.40.

Natural Gas (3.3490) rose sharply to 3.40 yesterday after the forecast of colder US temperature and outlook of large EIA inventory draw. It can move further up towards 3.5-3.6 in the upcoming sessions.

0:30 06:00 Australia Labour Force
… Exp – … Expected 26.0K … Previous 15.9K

8:30 14:00 SNB Mtg
… Exp – … Expected 0.75% … Previous 1.00%

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
… Exp 2.8% … Expected – … Previous 3.1%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
… Exp 5.52 … Expected – … Previous 6.21

13:15 18:45 ECB Mtg
… Exp 3.15% … Expected 3.15% … Previous 3.40%

13:30 19:00 US PPI
… Exp 0.1% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.2%

13:30 19:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
… Exp 0.5 … Expected 0.2 … Previous 0.3

DATA ON YESTERDAY:-
—————
13:30 19:00 US CPI (MoM)
… Exp 0.2 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.3

13:30 19:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
… Exp 0.2% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.3% …Actual 0.3

14:45 20:15 BOC Meeting
… Exp – … Expected 3.25% … Previous 3.75%